MOGADISHU – State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar Bal’ad has strongly rejected a recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warning that Al-Shabaab made significant military gains in 2025, reversing many of the territorial advances claimed by the Somali government over the past two years.
In a statement posted on his X account, Bal’ad criticised what he described as a recurring pattern among some international organisations and political commentators to portray Somalia as a perpetually failing state, incapable of securing itself or building functional institutions.
The ICG report follows earlier analyses that have warned of Al-Shabaab’s growing strength, with some observers suggesting that the group’s advances could lead to a collapse of the federal government or a takeover of the capital. The government has consistently rejected such assessments as overly pessimistic.
Government Faces Three Major Challenges
Bal’ad argued that the government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has simultaneously confronted three significant challenges: the fight against Al-Shabaab, the rebuilding and professionalisation of national security forces, and the completion of the constitutional process leading to one-person, one-vote elections.
“No genuine expert in post-conflict reconstruction would claim that any of these tasks is easy,” Bal’ad said. He emphasised that Somalia is addressing all of these challenges while still engaged in direct combat with Al-Shabaab and operating with limited financial and material resources.
The government has previously highlighted its progress in building institutional capacity, including disaster response systems and security force reforms, despite ongoing operational demands.
Al-Shabaab’s Reported Gains and Government’s Counter-Narrative
The ICG report, which has not been publicly released in full, reportedly claims that Al-Shabaab made significant military progress in 2025, undermining some of the territorial gains the government had previously announced. The report also warned that internal political divisions, delays in the political transition, and shifts in international support could increase pressure on the federal government.
Bal’ad dismissed the portrayal of Somalia as incomplete, stating that it does not reflect the reality on the ground. He asserted that the government has made measurable progress in strengthening state institutions and combating terrorism.
Military operations against Al-Shabaab have continued across multiple fronts, with Somali forces conducting coordinated strikes in the Middle Shabelle region and other areas. The government has maintained that operations will continue despite the challenges.
Political Divisions and International Support
The ICG report also highlighted the impact of internal political disputes on the government’s effectiveness, noting that divisions between federal authorities and regional administrations have created vulnerabilities that Al-Shabaab has exploited. The report warned that declining international engagement could further complicate the security situation.
International partners have continued to engage with Somalia on various fronts, including migration and security cooperation, though some have expressed concerns about the pace of political and security reforms.
Way Forward
The exchange between the government and the ICG reflects ongoing tensions between Somali officials and international observers over the assessment of the country’s security and political trajectory. While the government maintains that it is making progress despite significant obstacles, critics continue to warn that without urgent and decisive action, the gains made against Al-Shabaab could be reversed. The federal government has repeatedly stated that military operations and institutional reforms will continue, and that it remains committed to securing the country and building durable state institutions.
