Nearly One-Third of Somali Households Food Insecure, IDPs and Rural Communities Hit Hardest, New CFSVA Report Finds

MOGADISHU – Nearly one-third of Somali households remain food insecure, with internally displaced persons (IDPs) and rural communities bearing the heaviest burden, according to the newly released Somalia Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment (CFSVA) 2026.

The report, jointly implemented by the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS), the World Food Programme (WFP), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) through FSNAU, surveyed 8,816 households across 34 districts in 17 of Somalia’s 18 pre-war administrative regions. Middle Juba was not covered due to access and security constraints, and nomadic populations were excluded due to their mobile nature.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has sounded the alarm over Somalia’s worsening humanitarian crisis, citing severe drought, mass displacement, and escalating protection risks. According to OCHA’s August update, drought conditions in northern and eastern regions have left 2.5 million people in urgent need of assistance, with 900,000 concentrated in the worst-affected districts.

At the time of the assessment, conducted between February and May 2025, 29 per cent of households in the surveyed population were classified as food insecure under the Consolidated Approach for Reporting Indicators of Food Security (CARI) framework. This includes 25 per cent moderately food insecure and 4 per cent severely food insecure. An additional 40 per cent were marginally food secure, meaning a large share could deteriorate if exposed to additional shocks.

IDP and Rural Households Face Highest Burden

The report reveals stark disparities across population groups. Among IDP households, only 9 per cent were classified as food secure, while 53 per cent were food insecure. Rural households also face elevated food insecurity, while urban households show comparatively better outcomes. These differences confirm that displacement, rural deprivation, and limited service access remain central drivers of vulnerability.

Somalia’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change held a critical strategic meeting with the WFP Country Director to align national environmental policies with international humanitarian initiatives. Both officials emphasized the urgent requirement for robust climate adaptation measures, examining the vital connection between environmental deterioration and food security.

The Essential Needs Approach (ENA) deepens this picture. Among the surveyed population, 36 per cent of households are classified as highly or extremely vulnerable in their ability to meet essential needs, including 8 per cent classified as extremely vulnerable. This burden is most acute among IDP households, where 61 per cent fall into the highly or extremely vulnerable categories, compared with 45 per cent of rural households and 24 per cent of urban households.

Market Dependence and Economic Vulnerability

Market purchases account for 68 per cent of food acquisition, leaving households highly exposed to price increases, income losses, and market disruptions. Food expenditure is heavily concentrated on cereals, which account for 34.4 per cent of food spending, while expenditure on more nutritious foods remains limited. Financial resilience is weak, with only 10 per cent of households reporting cash savings and more than half carrying debt.

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has announced drastic reductions in emergency food assistance across Somalia, warning that funding shortages are forcing agencies to scale back support even as hunger and climate shocks intensify. The agency confirmed that the number of Somalis receiving food aid will drop from 1.1 million in August to just 350,000 by November.

The report notes that some households may not appear severely food insecure based on food consumption indicators but still face serious constraints in other dimensions of basic needs. ENA, therefore, complements CARI by identifying households whose vulnerability may be less visible through food consumption alone.

Shock Exposure and Coping Strategies

Rural households report the highest overall shock exposure at 24.1 per cent, followed by IDP households at 22.2 per cent and urban households at 13.3 per cent. Rural households are more exposed to climate-sensitive and livelihood-related shocks, including economic, natural, and agricultural shocks. IDP households report the highest level of household-specific shocks, reflecting weaker household-level resilience.

Somalia’s Disaster Management Commissioner launched a critical humanitarian summit in Mogadishu to combat the escalating drought and food emergency. The meeting followed one of the most limited October-December rainy seasons in history, which impacted approximately 4.61 million people across the nation.

Almost half of households rely on stressed or crisis-level consumption coping strategies. IDP households show the highest use of crisis and emergency coping, indicating that many displaced households are already reducing food quantity, quality, or frequency to manage shortfalls.

Economic Capacity to Meet Essential Needs

Overall, 47 per cent of households fall below the full Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) without assistance, meaning nearly half cannot cover the minimum cost of food and non-food essential needs. The gap is most severe among IDP households, where 77 per cent fall below the full MEB. The food MEB shows the most acute form of deprivation, with 29 per cent of households nationally falling below the minimum food threshold, rising to 53 per cent among IDPs and 38 per cent among rural households.

Humanitarian assistance has a protective effect, reducing the share below the full MEB from 47 per cent to 43 per cent and below the food MEB from 29 per cent to 25 per cent. However, these gains remain modest relative to the scale of need.

The Director General of the Ministry of Planning held a high-level meeting with the WFP Country Director to align WFP’s upcoming country strategy with Somalia’s National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025–2029. The discussions focused on strengthening collaboration to address Somalia’s food insecurity crisis amid a sharp decline in Official Development Assistance.

Access to Essential Services

Gaps in health care, sanitation, water, energy, safety, and financial inclusion collectively shape household well-being and food security. Overall, only 64.1 per cent of households report using improved toilet facilities. Access is much lower among rural households at 51.3 per cent and IDP households at 58.3 per cent compared with 72.7 per cent among urban households.

Health access remains constrained, with 39.1 per cent of households reporting that they needed health services but could not access them. This rises to 50.7 per cent among IDPs and 41.9 per cent among rural households. Lack of money is the primary barrier, cited by 86.8 per cent of households.

When the U.S. abruptly slashed foreign aid to Africa, Somalia’s fragile health system felt the impact almost immediately. Clinics are scaling back or shutting entirely, vaccination campaigns are faltering, and essential medicines sit unused in warehouses. Diphtheria has surged with over 1,600 cases and 87 deaths recorded this year.

Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) Findings

Using the globally validated Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), which measures people’s lived experiences of constrained access to food, the report estimates that approximately 44.3 per cent of households experienced moderate or severe food insecurity. Around 14.6 per cent experienced severe food insecurity, reflecting more serious experiences such as running out of food and going a whole day without eating.

IDP households record the highest levels of food insecurity at 69 per cent for moderate or severe and 27.7 per cent for severe, followed by rural households at 49 per cent and 16 per cent respectively. Urban households record 34.6 per cent for moderate or severe and 10.1 per cent for severe.

Regional Disparities

The highest moderate or severe household food insecurity estimates are observed in Middle Shabelle at 68.2 per cent, Bakool at 60.5 per cent, Lower Shabelle at 57.0 per cent, Mudug at 54.8 per cent, and Nugaal at 55.2 per cent. The lowest estimates are observed in Waqooyi Galbeed at 12.9 per cent, Togdheer at 15.9 per cent, and Awdal at 23.6 per cent.

Humanitarian Response and Nutrition Programs

At the Warcade Nutrition Centre in Dhusamareeb, hundreds of families are receiving critical support as the Galmudug Ministry of Health, in partnership with UNICEF and WFP, expands its life-saving services under the Joint Resilience Programme. Health workers are providing therapeutic feeding, medical check-ups, and counseling for families, ensuring that children suffering from severe acute malnutrition receive urgent care.

In a renewed effort to combat hunger and malnutrition, Somalia’s Minister of Health launched a new nutrition project targeting mothers and children in drought-affected regions. The initiative, funded by the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center (KSRelief) and implemented by WFP, is designed to strengthen essential nutrition and health services.

Accountability and Funding Challenges

The Office of the Auditor General of Somalia hosted a consultative meeting with WFP to review 2024 Financial Audit findings, focusing on strengthening transparency in aid delivery, improving data integrity, and tightening oversight of beneficiary systems.

The head of Somalia’s Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) held a strategic meeting with the Humanitarian Country Team and local aid groups to discuss the severe drought. Commissioner Abdulle addressed the difficulties caused by reduced international donor funding, noting that the cutback in financial backing has seriously hampered ongoing drought relief measures.

Recommendations from the Report

The report proposes five priority actions:

First, prioritize food and cash assistance for households facing overlapping food insecurity and essential needs vulnerability, especially IDP and rural households. Second, continuously calibrate cash assistance transfer values against MEB thresholds, market prices, and household purchasing power. Third, link food assistance more deliberately with nutrition, WASH, health, protection, and social protection systems, particularly for displaced populations. Fourth, strengthen rural resilience and livelihoods through climate-smart agriculture, livestock support, market access, and shock preparedness. Fifth, maintain integrated food security monitoring that combines food security and essential needs indicators, market analysis, coping capacity, climate indicators, and service access to identify deterioration early and guide targeted response planning.

The report concludes that Somalia’s food security challenge is both humanitarian and structural. Immediate assistance remains essential for households facing food insecurity and severe gaps in essential needs, particularly among displaced populations. At the same time, durable progress will require stronger livelihoods, improved market access, shock-responsive social protection, better access to basic services, and investments that reduce household exposure to recurrent climate and economic shocks.