Muse Bihi Cites ‘Geopolitical Storms’ in Warning to Somaliland Leadership Over Israel Ties

HARGEISA – Former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi has warned the current administration against becoming entangled in a shifting geopolitical landscape, cautioning that the Middle East’s conflicts are increasingly impacting the Horn of Africa and that Somaliland must carefully weigh its international engagements to avoid strategic missteps.

In a statement marking the June 26 independence anniversary, Bihi noted that major Islamic powers, including Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, are forming new alliances in response to changing global dynamics. He argued that the deteriorating relationship between the United States and Israel could further reshape the region, urging the government of President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro) to proceed with caution.

“Given these developments, it is incumbent upon the government, particularly the administration of the Republic of Somaliland, to carefully study the potential impact of these global changes to avoid political entrapment that could harm the nation’s interests,” Bihi said.

Israel officially recognised Somaliland as an independent sovereign state in December 2025, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Somalia’s federal government and sparked debate within Somaliland itself about the benefits and risks of the relationship. Former Somali intelligence chief Fahad Yasin has argued that the recognition carries no legal weight, noting it was not passed by the Israeli executive or the Knesset and has no basis in Israel’s own laws.

A ‘Geopolitical Earthquake’ in the Horn of Africa

Bihi’s warning comes amid what observers have described as a geopolitical earthquake in the Horn of Africa, triggered by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and the subsequent visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar to Hargeisa in January 2026. The visit solidified a new divide in the region, with a pro-recognition bloc led by Israel and the UAE pitted against a pro-unity camp backed by Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Djibouti.

President Irro recently concluded a state visit to Israel, where he opened Somaliland’s first embassy in Jerusalem and met with senior Israeli officials, including President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The visit was hailed by the Irro administration as a historic milestone in Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition.

Warnings of Middle East Conflict Spillover

Bihi’s concerns echo broader warnings from regional actors about the potential for Middle East conflicts to spill over into the Horn of Africa. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has repeatedly cautioned that Israel’s engagement with Somaliland risks importing the Middle East’s conflicts into the region, warning that an Israeli military presence could reignite conflict around the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

Bihi, who served as Somaliland’s president from 2017 to 2024, has previously warned against external interference in Somaliland’s affairs and called on countries like Turkey and Egypt to respect its sovereignty. His latest remarks appear to reflect unease within Somaliland’s political establishment about the potential consequences of the deepening relationship with Israel.

Domestic and Regional Reactions

The recognition of Somaliland by Israel has drawn mixed reactions within the breakaway region. While some have celebrated the diplomatic breakthrough, others, including religious leaders and political figures, have expressed concern about the implications of aligning with Israel. Al-Shabaab has issued a lengthy condemnation of the relationship, while former Somali intelligence chief Fahad Yasin has described the recognition as “legally void.”

Ethiopia has also signalled it may move toward recognising Somaliland, with an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed suggesting that Addis Ababa could follow Israel’s lead, further complicating the regional landscape.

Way Forward

As Somaliland continues its pursuit of international recognition, Bihi’s warning underscores the delicate balancing act facing the Irro administration. The government must navigate competing pressures from regional powers, manage domestic political divisions, and weigh the strategic benefits of its relationship with Israel against the risks of deeper entanglement in Middle East conflicts. The coming months will likely determine whether Somaliland’s diplomatic gambit yields lasting gains or exposes it to new vulnerabilities in an increasingly volatile region.