MOGADISHU: The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) has released its rainfall forecast for the first two weeks of May 2026, projecting varying levels of precipitation across the country during the Gu rainy season. The agency has warned communities in coastal areas and along the Shabelle River to remain vigilant, as some districts may experience both riverine and flash flooding in the coming days.
According to SoDMA, light to moderate rains are expected in several northern and central regions, including Togdheer, Waqooyi Galbeed, Sool, Sanaag, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, and Hiiraan. Some districts in these areas may receive rainfall between 10 and 30 millimeters. In the southern regions of Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba, moderate rainfall is predicted, with precipitation levels expected to range from 30 to 80 millimeters. Heavier rains are forecast for coastal regions along the Indian Ocean, including Middle Shabelle, Benadir, Lower Shabelle, and parts of Lower Juba, where rainfall could reach between 80 and 120 millimeters.
SoDMA has specifically alerted communities living along the Indian Ocean coastline and the Shabelle River basin. The agency warned that some districts in Middle Shabelle, Benadir, Lower Shabelle, and Lower Juba might face both riverine and flash flooding in the days ahead. Water levels in the Shabelle River are also rising, particularly in Beledweyne and Jowhar, increasing the flood risk if additional rainfall occurs upstream. Authorities have advised residents in vulnerable areas to take precautionary measures and stay updated as conditions evolve.
SoDMA has been working to establish robust disaster response mechanisms across the country, implementing a National Disaster Management Policy that integrates early warning systems and rapid emergency logistics. The agency has previously coordinated flood responses during the Gu and Deyr rainy seasons, including evacuations and emergency shelter provision for affected communities.
SoDMA has intensified efforts to deploy technology-driven early warning systems that can protect Somali communities from recurring natural disasters. The agency delivers alerts through mobile messaging, social media, community radio, and local networks to reach even the most remote villages. The current forecast is part of that ongoing initiative to provide timely information to at‑risk populations.
The Gu rains, which typically run from April to June, are critical for agriculture and livestock but also bring heightened risks of flooding, particularly in low‑lying areas and along riverbanks. In recent years, Somalia has experienced devastating flash floods that displaced hundreds of thousands of people and destroyed crops and infrastructure. SoDMA has urged local authorities and humanitarian partners to preposition supplies and prepare emergency response teams in high‑risk zones.
Residents in flood‑prone areas along the Shabelle River, including Beledweyne, Jowhar, and parts of Middle and Lower Shabelle, have been advised to move to higher ground if water levels continue to rise. SoDMA said it will provide regular updates as the situation develops and urged the public to follow official channels for evacuation instructions and emergency assistance.
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